> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.prophetmarket.ai/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.prophetmarket.ai/brand-guidelines/claim-rules.md). # Claim Rules The most important page in this section. Each claim below is frequently made, frequently made wrongly, and expensive to correct once published. {% hint style="danger" %} **Use the approved framings verbatim if you are unsure** Every claim on this page has an approved framing. Copying it exactly is always safer than paraphrasing it. {% endhint %} ## Who sets the price **Never write that the AI prices the market, sets the odds, or that a displayed percentage is the AI's verdict.** The model ensemble resolves markets, meaning it determines the outcome after the event against the market's stated source. Trading prices come from the order book, from what buyers and sellers agree. > **Approved framing:** You write the question and the market prices it. The price is whatever buyers and sellers agree on, and it moves as they change their minds. This corrects language currently live in marketing, including "YES, according to the AI" and "the AI sets the odds". An independent fact check identified these as contradicted by the product specification. Do not reuse them. ## Settlement timing **Never write that settlement, resolution or payouts are instant.** The mechanism has deliberate delays and they are the strongest evidence of its integrity, so state them rather than hiding them. The accurate sequence runs as follows. Resolution begins three hours after the market's stated resolution time. The ensemble evaluates the outcome against the canonical source. The result is posted on chain. A twelve hour review window enforced by the smart contract then elapses before payouts become claimable. Where the models cannot reach a confident answer, retries can extend the process for up to roughly two days. > **Approved framing:** Prophet waits 3 hours before resolution begins, then holds the result in a 12 hour on chain review window that Prophet itself cannot override. Roughly 15 hours from event to claimable payout in the best case. The persuasive angle is the constraint rather than the speed. Prophet cannot shorten the window, which means nobody can shorten it for anybody. ## Cost **Never write that Prophet is free, low fee or fee free.** Prophet earns through the spread between buy and sell price, around 20% and variable by market risk profile. It sits inside every quoted price, so there is no separate line item, but it is a real cost and the largest one a trader faces. > **Approved framing:** Prophet does not charge a commission. The cost of trading is the spread, which is already inside the price you are quoted. It is substantial, so a round trip is expensive. Never invite a direct cost comparison against another platform. ## Cancellation **Never describe the 50c cancellation outcome as a refund.** Shares are fungible on chain tokens and the contract does not record what any individual paid. Cancellation releases the one dollar of collateral backing each YES and NO pair evenly, so a trader who entered at 70c receives 50c and loses 20c per share, while a trader who entered at 30c gains 20c. > **Approved framing:** Cancellation is a symmetric release of collateral, not a reimbursement. It is neutral on the collateral and not neutral on your entry price. ## Custody Prophet's strongest set of claims, and largely defensible, so make them often. State them with the qualifiers below, all of which come from the product specification. | Claim | Required qualifier | | --------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Funds sit in a Gnosis Safe on Polygon you own | Prophet cannot move anything without a signature from you | | No seed phrase | True for the email and Google path. Wallet users bring their own key | | Prophet pays gas | Polygon gas only. Cross chain deposits still incur source chain gas | | Rounding is conservative | You never pay more than the quote to buy, never receive less to sell | > **Approved framing:** Sign in with email or Google, no seed phrase to write down. Your USDC sits in a Safe only you can authorise, and Prophet covers the Polygon gas on every action. {% hint style="warning" %} **Never claim a user never pays gas without qualification** Never imply there is nothing to lose or protect. For email and Google users, account recovery runs through Privy rather than Prophet, so that login should be treated with the same care as a seed phrase, and content should say so. {% endhint %} ## Exiting a position Selling before an event concludes is a genuine advantage and should be led with for betting audiences. It requires a liquidity qualifier. > **Approved framing:** A position can be closed before the event concludes, subject to market liquidity. Thin markets have wider spreads and worse fills. **Worked examples must account for the spread.** A buy at 30c and a sell at 60c does not net the full 30c difference. Either include the spread in the arithmetic or state plainly that the example is simplified and excludes it. ## Compliance Prophet is not available to US citizens or residents. Content should not target US audiences, and paid distribution should exclude the United States. Never describe Prophet as gambling or betting in owned content, never imply guaranteed returns, and never present trading as a route to income. Where an audience arrives from a betting context, the [Voice](/brand-guidelines/voice.md) terminology table gives the substitutions. ## Before publishing A short check catches most errors. Confirm that no claim on this page has been paraphrased, that any number stated appears in the product specification, that settlement is not described as instant, that the spread is disclosed wherever cost is discussed, that "refund" does not appear, and that no competing platform is named. --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. 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