> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.prophetmarket.ai/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.prophetmarket.ai/core-concepts/markets.md). # Markets *The anatomy of a Prophet market, and what makes a question tradeable.* A market is a single yes or no question with a resolution date and a stated source of truth. Everything else about the market, including its price, follows from how precisely that question is written. ## What every market contains **The question** A claim that will be unambiguously true or false by a stated date. Good questions name a specific threshold, a specific subject and a specific deadline. **Resolution criteria** The rules that decide the outcome, including which source is authoritative and how edge cases are handled. The criteria govern, not the title. **Resolution date** The point after which the market becomes eligible to resolve. Prophet then waits three hours before starting resolution. **Current odds** The live YES and NO prices, quoted in cents, which express the current probability of each side. **Volume** How much has traded. Low volume usually means a wider spread and shallower depth. {% hint style="danger" %} **Read the criteria, not the title** The title is a summary. The resolution criteria are the contract. A market titled as a question about a price level might specify a particular exchange, a particular closing time and a particular handling of missing data, all of which change what you are actually trading. {% endhint %} ## Categories Markets are organised by subject so that you can find the areas where you plausibly have an edge. Prophet covers politics, sports, economics, financials, crypto, climate, culture, companies, technology and science, world events, and transportation. The useful way to think about categories is as a map of where your own information advantage might lie. If you follow a domain closely enough to disagree with a calibrated model, that is where your edge is. ## Creating your own market You are not limited to the markets already listed. Write a verifiable yes or no question with a resolution date, and the pricing ensemble analyses real time information and generates calibrated odds for it, typically in under thirty seconds. The market is then tradeable. 1. **State a single, testable claim** One question, one threshold, one deadline. Compound questions and vague adjectives are the most common reason a market cannot be resolved cleanly later. 2. **Name the deadline precisely** Include the date and, where it matters, the time and time zone. A market that turns on a closing price needs to say which close. 3. **Point at a source that will actually publish** The best sources are official announcements, published data series and primary records. If the answer will only ever exist as rumour, the market cannot resolve. 4. **Review the generated odds** The ensemble prices the question immediately. If the price looks obviously wrong to you, that is either your edge or a sign the question is ambiguous. {% hint style="warning" %} **Ambiguity has a cost** A question that cannot be settled against a source may spend up to two days in retries and can ultimately be voided, which returns fifty cents per share regardless of what you paid. Precision when writing a market protects your own position. {% endhint %} --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com. ## Querying This Documentation If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question. Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter, and the optional `goal` query parameter: ``` GET https://docs.prophetmarket.ai/core-concepts/markets.md?ask=&goal= ``` `ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language. `goal` is optional and describes the broader end goal you are ultimately trying to accomplish on behalf of the user. GitBook uses it to tailor the answer towards what is most useful for that goal. The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation. Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.